Management Report

2. Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook [Table 1]
  Growth1
2014
Growth1
forecast 2015
World +2.7% +2.9%
European Union +1.3% +1.9%
of which Germany +1.6% +2.1%
United States +2.4% +3.0%
Emerging markets2 +4.4% +4.0%

1 real growth of gross domestic product, source: IHS Global Insight

2 including about 50 countries defined by IHS Global Insight as emerging markets in line with the World Bank as of March 2015

The global economy will probably grow more quickly in 2015 than in the previous year, supported by a generally expansionary monetary policy and the sharp decline in oil prices. We expect the economic recovery in the European Union to continue. The German economy in particular is likely to grow more rapidly than initially predicted. The United States economy is anticipated to grow considerably faster than in 2014. By contrast, the rate of expansion in the emerging countries is likely to weaken again slightly on average.

Economic Outlook for the Subgroups  [Table 2]
  Growth1
2014
Growth1
forecast 2015
HealthCare    
Pharmaceuticals market +8% +7%
Consumer care market +4% +4%
Medical care market -3% -1%
Animal health market +5% +5%
CropScience    
Seed and crop protection market +6% ≤ 3%
MaterialScience    
(main customer industries)    
Automotive +3% +3%
Construction +4% +4%
Electrical/electronics +4% +5%
Furniture +4% +4%

1 Bayer’s estimate; except pharmaceuticals. Source for pharmaceuticals market: IMS Health, IMS Market Prognosis. Copyright 2015. All rights reserved; currency-adjusted; 2014 data provisional

as of April 2015

The pharmaceuticals market is likely to grow rather more slowly in 2015 than in the previous year, especially because of the slightly lower growth rate predicted for this market in the United States. Following double-digit growth in the u.s. last year, which was driven by new product introductions and health system reforms, this market will probably expand at a somewhat slower rate in 2015, partly as a result of patent expirations and launches of new generic products. We expect demand to be stable in the emerging economies.

Growth in the consumer care market in 2015 is likely to be level with the previous year. We expect the medical care market to stabilize, with the diabetes care market weakening and the market for contrast agents and medical equipment (Radiology business unit) expanding slightly. The animal health market is anticipated to grow at about the same rate as in 2014.

The global seed and crop protection market will likely continue to expand in 2015. However, we anti­cipate a much slower rate of growth than in the previous years, mainly as a result of the low price level for agricultural commodities. The benefit to farmers of lower energy and fertilizer costs is likely to support demand.

In line with the recovery of the global economy, we expect the business climate for the main customer industries of MaterialScience to continue improving during 2015.

Last updated: August 16, 2017  Copyright © Bayer AG
http://www.quarterly-report-2015-q1.bayer.com